1. The MATTER Project on Integrated Energy/Materials Strategies for Western Europe
   D.J. Gielen, T. Kram
   This paper discusses Western European GHG emission reduction in the materials system, based on MARKAL calculations with an integrated energy and materials systems model. The results show that the materials system contributes up to 50% to the total emission reduction at moderate emission reduction goals. Major changes due to GHG emission penalties occur in the materials production and in waste handling, whilst materials substitution occurs at penalty levels above 100 ECU/t CO₂.
   Paper prepared for the ETSAP workshop, 6-7 May 1998, Berlin
   Full paper available in: PDF format (41 kB).
    
2. The Impact of GHG Emission Reduction on the Western European Materials System
   D.J. Gielen
   This paper discusses preliminary results for the analysis of Western European GHG emission reduction in the materials system, based on MARKAL model calculations. The results show that the materials system contributes up to 50% to the total emission reduction at moderate emission reduction goals. Major changes due to GHG emission penalties occur in the materials production and in waste handling, while materials use is only significantly affected at penalty levels above 100 ECU/t CO₂.
   Preliminary analysis for the MATTER workshop Factor 2/Factor 10, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 2 April 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (61 kB).
    
3. Workshop Factor 2/Factor 10 Proceedings
   D.J. Gielen (Ed.)
   Concrete and binding targets for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Annex-1 countries are now agreed to in the Kyoto protocol. Emissions in the European Union will be reduced by 8% in the period 2008-1012, compared to the emissions in the reference year (1990/95). In subsequent periods after 2010, further reductions will be required in order to arrive at stabilisation of global GHG concentrations at acceptable levels as called for by the UN Climate Convention. In this respect the Factor 4 and Factor 10 concepts, emerging from the eco-efficiency discussion, come into play. Doubling of economic outputs, coupled to a simultaneous 50% reduction of GHG emissions, requires a Factor 4 reduction of the specific emissions per unit of economic activity. If this were a global goal, Western economies will in all likelihood face even much further reaching goals: efficiency improvements as high as a Factor 10 might eventually become the longer term requirement.
   In order to achieve such challenging goals, all available options and strategies must be utilised. One group of strategies that has received relatively little attention for GHG policies focuses on bulk material flows in the economy. Under current conditions, approximately one quarter of the GHG emissions can be attributed to the production of materials, and these emissions can be reduced through changes in the materials use. However, such strategies compete with strategies that reduce the emissions in the production of materials itself. An integrated life cycle approach is required for proper assessment of the various materials related options in close conjunction with the energy sector. The MATTER project (MATerials Technologies for greenhouse gas Emission Reduction) is a joint project of five Dutch institutes within the framework of the National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change that focuses on the potential to reduce GHG emission in the life cycle of materials.
   The goal of this 'Factor 2/Factor 10' MATTER workshop is to indicate the potential of materials strategies for GHG emission reduction. Five papers were presented, one focusing on integrated systems calculations with the MARKAL model, three on product groups (passenger cars, packagings, and building and infrastructure) and one on a materials group (metals). Together these case studies cover a significant part of the total materials production and materials use.
   The title of the workshop 'Factor 2/Factor 10' refers to the widely accepted notion that a factor 2 emission reduction is possible with technological improvements, while a factor 10 cannot be achieved through technological improvements alone. The case studies intend to put this hypothesis to the test.
   The workshop was attended by representatives from the industry, research and policy communities in the Netherlands. The organizers hereby want to express their gratitude for the active participation of all, and recognizes in particular the invaluable input provided by discussants and panelists. The National Research Programme (NOP-MLK) kindly provided financial and logistic support; and last but not least the workshop chairman, professor Han Brezet of Delft Technical University, is acknowledged for creating the lively and stimulating atmosphere under which the event took place.
   Full proceedings available in: PDF format (503 kB).
    
4. The MARKAL systems engineering model for waste management
   D.J. Gielen
   The MARKAL linear programming model was developed 20 years ago within the international IEA/ETSAP framework (International Energy Agency/Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme). More than 50 institutes in 27 countries use nowadays MARKAL. MARKAL is an acronym for MARKet Allocation.
   The model was originally developed for energy systems analysis. In recent years, the model has been extended for materials modeling. The model covers now the whole materials life cycle 'from cradle to grave'.
   This paper focuses on the pros and cons of regional systems engineering models like MARKAL for waste management. First the characteristics of the model are elaborated. The impact of waste disposal fees and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction on European waste management are discussed in a case study.
   Paper presented at Workshop Systems engineering models for waste management, 25-26 February, 1998, Goeteborg, Sweden.
   Full paper available in: PDF format (69 kB).
    
5. The Future of the European Aluminium Industry: a MARKAL Energy and Material Flow Analysis
   D.J. Gielen
   This paper focuses on the use of regional techno-economic systems optimisation models like MARKAL for resource-oriented ex-ante analysis of material flows. First the current production structure, cost structure and the technological trends in aluminium production are discussed. Next the characteristics of the analysis model are elaborated. Changing technology, costs and environmental issues are integrated into a full size energy and materials systems model for Western Europe. The impact of GHG emission reduction policies on the aluminum industry in the first half of the 21st century is analysed, based on MARKAL modeling results.
   Paper prepared for the workshop 'Methodological Aspects of Resource-Oriented Analysis of Material Flows', Bergisch Gladbach, Germany, 23-24 April 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (66 kB).
    
6. Integral Energy and Materials Policy for Cheaper Greenhouse Gas Reduction
   D.J. Gielen, T. Kram
   This paper is a brief review of the status of the MATTER project, October 1998.
   Paper prepared for the symposium 'National Research Programme Global Air Pollution and Climate Change', Garderen, the Netherlands, 29-30 October 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (32 kB).
    
7. Western European Integrated Energy and Materials Scenarios for Sustainable Development
   D.J. Gielen, T. Kram
   This paper discusses the use of scenarios and sensitivity analysis for assessment of uncertainty in systems engineering models.
   Paper prepared for the NWO conference, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 19-20 November 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (62 kB).
    
8. Biomass for greenhouse gas emission REDuction (BRED)
   D.J. Gielen, T. Gerlagh, A.J.M. Bos
   This paper discusses the use of biomass for energy and materials production in order to reduce GHG emissions. The MATTER modeling results show that GHG policies can simultaneously enhance the sustainability of our society because they result in a switch from petrochemicals to renewable resources.
   Paper prepared for the Conaccount meeting 'Ecologizing Societal Matabolism:; Designing Scenarios for Sustainable Materials Management', Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 21 November 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (48 kB).
    
9. The MARKAL Systems Optimisation Model for Dynamic Life Cycle Analysis of Biomass Strategies for GHG Emission Reduction
   D.J. Gielen, T. Gerlagh, A.J.M. Bos
   This paper discusses the use of biomass for energy and materials production in order to reduce GHG emissions. This case study shows the relevance of GHG emission reduction in the next decades for the environmental consequences of biomass products. Moreover, the paper shows how the MARKAL systems engineering model can be applied for improved life cycle assessment.
   Paper prepared for the conference 'LCA in Agriculture, Agro-Industry and Forestry', Brussels, Belgium, 3-4 December 1998
   Full paper available in: PDF format (61 kB).
    
10. The Future of Petrochemicals. A MATTER Model Analysis
    B.J. Groenendaal, D.J. Gielen
    This paper discusses the MARKAL MATTER results for the petrochemical sector. The impact of GHG emission reduction on the life cycle of petrochemical products is discussed 'from cradle to grave'. The results indicate a significant potential for cost-effective emission reduction, but at comparatively high emission permit prices of 100-200 EUR/t CO₂. Reduction of N2O emissions, recycling and biomass feedstocks are the main strategies.
    Full paper available in: PDF format (??? kB).
     
11. MARKAL for policy instrument assessment. The OECD TOG project
    D.J. Gielen, S. Franssen, A. Seebregts, T. Kram, 1999
    This paper discusses the use of MED and discusses preliminary results for the TOG project regarding the selection of GHG policy instruments.
    Paper prepared for the ETSAP annex VII workshop, Washington DC, Belgium, 29/4-4/5 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (94 kB).
     
12. Integrated Energy and Materials Scenarios for GHG Emission Mitigation
    D.J. Gielen, T. Kram, J.C. Brezet, 1999
    This paper discusses the results of the MATTER model runs, status april 1999. The use of DfE strategies for GHG emisison mitigation is elaborated.
    Paper prepared for the IEA/DOE workshop, Washington DC, 5/5-7/5 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (65 kB).
     
13. Integrated Energy and Materials Scenarios for GHG Emission Mitigation. Annex 1.
    D.J. Gielen, T. Kram, J.C. Brezet, 1999
    This paper discusses the answers with regard to the IEA review questions.
    Paper prepared for the IEA/DOE workshop, Washington DC, 5/5-7/5 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (17 kB).
     
14. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction in Agriculture and Forestry. A western European systems engineering perspective
    D.J. Gielen, A.J.M. Bos, M.A.P.C. de Feber, T. Gerlagh, 1999
    This paper discusses the preliminary results for the MATTER model runs for BRED, status May 1999. An integrated strategy is developed for GHG emission mitigation in Western European Agriculture and Forestry.
    Paper prepared for a colloquium at the French ministry of environment, Paris, 18-19 May 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (75 kB).
     
15. CO₂ reduction strategies in the basic metals industry: A systems approach
    D.J. Gielen, T. van Dril, 1999
    This paper discusses the MATTER model runs for the steel industry and the aluminium industry, status fall 1998.
    Paper prepared for the annual conference of the minerals, metals and materials society TMS, San Diego, 28/2-4/4 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (91 kB).
     
16. Biomass for energy or materials ? The European BRED project.
    D.J. Gielen, A.J.M. Bos, M.A.P.C. de Feber, T. Gerlagh, 1999
    This paper discusses the results for the MARKAL MATTER model for Western Europe, status October 1999. The paper elaborates the impact of costs and discounting on the comparison of offorestation and bioenergy production. The analysis shows that this methodological feature is a major explanation of the difference between MARKAL and other environmental assessment methods.
    Paper prepared for the IEA Bioenergy Agreement Task 25 workshop, Gatlinburg, Tennesse, USA, 27-30 September 1999
    Full paper available in: PDF format (128 kB).
     
17. Biomass for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Task 8: Optimal emission reduction strategies for Western Europe.
    D.J. Gielen, A.J.M. Bos, M.A.P.C. de Feber, T. Gerlagh, 1999
    This report discusses the results for the MARKAL MATTER model for Western Europe. The results suggest that compared to the base case the use of biomass for energy and materials applications will increase by up to 200 -300 Mt (compared to the case with no penalty) if GHG policies are introduced. The main increase occurs for production of electricity from waste, transportation fuels and substitution of petrochemical feedstocks. The results show that competing afforestation strategies have an even higher relevance for emission reduction than energy and materials crops. This is a remarkable difference compared to other biomass modelling studies. It can be attributed to a combination of the accounting for the changing characteristics of reference system, the consideration of the limited land availability and the cost optimisation, where discounting is introduced. A large number of biomass production and biomass conversion technologies have been evaluated for three scenarios and varying policy approaches. Based on these results, a number for policy strategy are proposed for the European Union.
    Final report for the EU BRED project
    Full paper available in: PDF format (1,4 MB).

Other publications

1. The Role of Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases in Meeting Kyoto Targets
   D.J. Gielen, T. Kram
   Preliminary analysis indicates that careful consideration of non-CO₂ greenhouse gas emissions and sinks from a variety of sources as provided in the Kyoto Protocol is warranted. Sources, projections, abatement options and uncertainties in these estimations are investigated in support of Post-Kyoto assessments of burden sharing in the European Union. Despite large uncertainties, evidence is given that in particular methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons play a significant role in meeting Kyoto targets by EU member states. Their emission reduction is forecast to contribute one quarter to the total emission reduction in 2010, given the emission reduction goals of individual European countries.
   Full paper available in: PDF format (59 kB).
    
2. Post-Kyoto. The impact on Climate Policy in the European Union
   D.J. Gielen, P.R. Koutstaal, T. Kram, S.N.M. van Rooijen
   Based on results of systems engineering models like MARKAL, the consequences of four allocation schemes of the 8% emission reduction goal to individual countries in the European Union is quantified. The analysis suggests that the distribution agreed upon in Summer 1998 results in high costs in some countries.
   Full paper available in: PDF format (128 kB).