ETSAP: Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme

Global

ETSAP-TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)

Coverage Global, 15 regions – Africa, Australia-New Zealand, Canada, Central and South America, China, Eastern Europe, Former Soviet Union, India, Japan, Mexico, Middle-East, Other Developing Asia, South Korea, United States, and Western Europe – plus an additional country as 16^th region. 2100 is the time horizon.

Responsible The starting version of the model was developed by the Canadian team – Richard Loulou, Maryse Labriet, Amit Kanudia – while working at GERAD (1999-2000). The seed of TIAM was embodied in the initial version of the global models developed by US-EIA (SAGE), IEA (ETP) and EFDA. The model is presently run also at the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) of the University of Stuttgart and at VTT (Finland).

Description: TIAM comprises several thousand technologies in all sectors of the energy system. It is characterized by several technical and economic parameters and by emission coefficients for the three main GHG’s: CO2, CH4, and N2O. The following new features have been added to TIMES: linearised climate equations; multi-stage stochastic programming; new formulation for the forcing equation (linear approximation of forcing), allowing greater flexibility and power to the ETSAP-TIAM; and the possibility of binding each and every component of the cost objective function.

Basic Documentation

· ETSAP-TIAM: some details on model and database

· Model structure

· Mathematical formulation

· Review of the fossil resource base

· Review of resources and trade of fossil energy resources

Papers and Presentations
·         Is a 2 degrees Celsius warming achievable under high uncertainty?

·         Analysis of climate policies under uncertainty

·         Model Based Scenario Analysis of Global Resource Use and Trade

·         The Role of Nuclear Energy in Long-Term Climate Scenarios

·         VTT Scenario Report

·         Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios [VTT, Finland]

·         OPEC Oil Pricing Strategies in a Climate Regime: a Two-Level Optimization Approach in an Integrated Assessment Model

·         Achieving Climate Stabilization Targets by efficient v. fragmented coalitions, with ETSAP-TIAM

·         OPEC Oil Strategies in a Climate Regime

·         Climate Targets under uncertainty Analysis with The ETSAP-TIAM Model

·         EMF-22 Data Template for ETSAP-TIAM

·         A global perspective to achieve a low-carbon society (LCS): scenario analysis with the ETSAP-TIAM model

ETP Energy Technology Perspectives MARKAL Model

Coverage          Global, 15 regions, 2050 is the time horizon.

Responsible      International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Office,(IEA/ETO)
GIELEN Dolf

Web link           http://www.iea.org

Description:      The model’s detailed representation of technology options includes about 1 000 individual technologies. The ETP model has been supplemented with detailed demand-side models for all major end-uses in the industry, buildings and transport sectors. These models were developed to assess the effects of policies that do not primarily act on price. These demand-side models explicitly take into account capital-stock turnover and have been used to model the impact of new technologies as they penetrate the market over time.

·         Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage( Full Text)

·         Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (Full Text)

·          ETP 2006, Scenarios & Strategies to 2050(Summary), [Table of Contents], [Presentation]

System for the Analysis of Global Energy markets (SAGE)

Coverage          Global, 16 regions, MARKAL time stepped (myopic), till 2050.

Responsible      Energy Information Administration (US-DOE)

Web link           http://www.eia.doe.gov/

Description:      SAGE is used to project energy use in detail at the enduse sector level. It is an integrated set of regional models that provide a technology-rich basis for estimating regional energy consumption. For each region, reference case estimates of 42 end-use energy service demands (e.g., car, commercial truck, and heavy truck road travel; residential lighting; steam heat requirements in the paper industry) are developed on the basis of economic and demographic projections. Projections of energy consumption to meet the energy demands are estimated on the basis of each region’s existing energy use patterns, the existing stock of energy-using equipment, and the characteristics of available new technologies, as well as new sources of primary energy supply.

·         International Energy Outlook 2007

·         International Energy Outlook, previous years

·         Description of the SAGE model

EFDA-TIMES

Coverage          Global, 15 regions, 2100 is the time horizon.

Responsible      European Fusion Development Agreement, Technical Support Unit, Garching bei Muenchen, Germany, Christian Eherer

Web link           http://www.efda.org

Description:      The model, similar to previous ones, is used to study possible markets of fusion energy, and cost goal in order to make it competitive in some country/ region under selective scenario assumptions.

·         Fusion in the global energy system – GIS and TIMES

·         Update 2005

·         Update 2006